How the military junta is losing control of Myanmar
Myanmar's military junta seized power nearly 20 months ago, ousting the National League for Democracy (NLD) government led by Aung San Suu Kyi in a dramatic coup. But as Myanmar's military officials have failed to control the post-coup situation, their level of brutality against the civilian population is increasing day by day. Analysts say that the military junta is also attacking the common people of their own country to cover their own failure. As a result, the junta government is basically losing its grip on Myanmar.
Across Myanmar, the country's military faces near-regular resistance from the People's Defense Force (PDF) and ethnic armed groups. As a result, the military junta became more desperate and carried out widespread atrocities in various places.
According to various organizations, more than two thousand people have been killed by the junta since the coup. More than 15 thousand people have been arrested or detained.
Myanmar army is losing control of most of the country. According to the Special Advisory Council for Myanmar (SAC-M), the junta has effective control over only 17 percent of the country's territory. A shadow government called the National Unity Government (NUG), formed in protest against the coup, controls 52 percent of the area. The rest of the regions are in a competitive position. The army has 'stable control' over only 72 of the country's 330 urban areas.
In addition, Myanmar's army, which is facing unprecedented challenges due to ever-increasing casualties, stagnant recruitment and defections, has dwindled from an estimated 400,000 to about 200,000. Stakeholders say the degree to which defectors have allied with pro-democracy groups is unprecedented in Myanmar's history. It is clear from this that the legitimacy and internal coherence of the Tatmadaw's Myanmar army is now under serious challenge.
The NUG says more than 8,000 army and police officers have defected since the coup. There are also credible reports that the military junta has now become dependent on various proxy groups like the People's Security Force-PSF.
Significant improvements in the PDF's military capabilities have added new dimensions to the conflict. Resistance fighters, who once relied only on home-made guns; They are now using automatic weapons as well as sophisticated hardware such as landmines and drones.
The PDF's intense guerrilla attacks on convoys, outposts and strategic bases have severely damaged Myanmar military assets and the 'rank-and-file', almost cornering the junta on the ground and forcing it to rely more on aerial warfare.
Strategic coordination between the People's Defense Force (PDF) and ethnic armed groups is shaping up to be a new political reality, from which it is clear that the nearly 60,000 fighters affiliated with the NUG are committed to ousting the generals at all costs. From the country's borders to the people of Bama, the military junta now faces a formidable coalition of opponents on multiple fronts.
Analysts say if the PDF and ethnic armed groups can continue to put pressure on the military junta, Myanmar's army chief Min Aung Hlaing is bound to concede. There is no doubt that the military is dominant in Myanmar in terms of troop numbers, defense capabilities, combat experience and financial resources. But this does not mean that the military will be able to eliminate the democratic forces. Because public support for the junta is at an all-time low from anger and hatred. As a result, the morale of this aggressive force is decreasing day by day.
Similarly, the country of once promising economic prospects is now on the brink of destruction due to violence. Along with Sri Lanka, Laos and Pakistan, Myanmar's economy is also in major crisis. According to analysts, the economic woes are fueling social unrest in Myanmar and encouraging more people to take up arms against the junta.
There are many reasonable reasons to believe that the junta's foreign exchange reserves are rapidly depleting due to the collapse of the tourism sector, weak export earnings and increased spending on arms and fuel imports. Predictably, the junta government will not be able to survive in the long term due to the crippled economy.
Apart from this, Myanmar is heading towards extensive diplomatic and economic isolation. Western countries have suspended aid and imposed sanctions on Myanmar's top military leaders. Russia has also slowed arms supplies to Myanmar after its invasion of Ukraine, putting the future of the junta at grave risk.
China is one of Myanmar's closest allies. However, it is becoming difficult for them to maintain relations with the junta due to various reasons. As a result, Beijing is maintaining relations with ethnic armed groups and Aung San Suu Kyi's NLD. The Tatmadaw, on the other hand, has never been comfortable with China's geopolitical ambitions. Because, China can take over Myanmar at any time - this fear was always in the mind of the junta.
Economic analysts say China may have realized by now that it will not benefit much from investing in Myanmar without stability. As a result, Beijing's investment in the country has also decreased dramatically. According to the official data of Myanmar, during the period of the NLD government, the amount of Chinese investment there was more than 6.5 billion dollars. But by 2021, that investment has dwindled to about 176 million.
The future is still unclear. But in terms of battlefield losses, economic disaster and lack of support from key allies – three important indicators – popular support or eventual victory has largely shifted to pro-democratic forces. The win may not come right away, but time is on their side for sure.
Source: Shannews
