Sanctions-politics-crisis, which way is Iran?
Most countries in the Middle East are war-torn. Iran is one of the few countries that are still in a strong position. However, for a long time, the country is going towards a bit of a broken situation due to various restrictions of the West. Iran is being slapped further by its allies, including the United States, in the wake of ongoing protests over the recent death of a young woman in police custody and for supplying weapons to Russia in the Ukraine war.
Geopolitical position
Experts fear that Iran is one of the civilizations that has existed in the Middle East from ancient times to the present day. The 17th largest country in the world. Iran borders the Caspian, Persian and Oman Seas. The area is 16 lakh 84 thousand square kilometers. The country, which is ranked 16th in the world with a population of 70 million, is like a fortress. Iran is surrounded by mountains on three sides and sea on one side. And at the center of it is the desert. Overall, it is very difficult to capture Iran.
Economic status
Iran's economy is dependent on oil, gas, agriculture and service sectors. It is the fourth largest oil producing country in the world. And the second largest exporter of OPEC. It has the second largest natural gas reserves.
In April of this year, the National Iranian Oil Company (NIOC) said that Iran's oil and gas reserves are approximately 1.2 trillion barrels. China imports the most oil from Iran. Although the economic condition of Iran is prosperous, in 2018, due to the US sanctions on the nuclear issue, Tehran's economic condition has been somewhat weakened.
However, despite the US sanctions, Iran's name appeared in the list of the world's 20th largest economy last year. According to the International Monetary Fund, the size of the Iranian economy in 2021 based on purchasing power parity with GDP per capita was about 143 trillion dollars.
How strong is Iran in defense?
According to the Global Firepower Index 2022, Iran ranks 14th in terms of military weapons capability in the world. According to analysts, after the Islamic revolution in 1979, Iran's path to buying weapons and military technology from the Western world became somewhat difficult. After the international ban in 2010, it stopped completely.
Since then, Iran itself continues to try to develop various types of weapons, weapons materials and technology. The country has been quite successful in this regard. In particular, Tehran has advanced in missile technology, drones and nuclear weapons. The main pillar of Iran's power is various types of missiles. Lacking air strike capabilities, the country has systematically focused on strengthening its missile system.
Conflict with the United States
Since the 1950s, the relations between the two countries have been strained. However, due to the Iran-Iraq war in 1980, relations between Tehran and Washington further deteriorated. Iraqi forces invaded and invaded Iran without prior announcement on September 22, 1980, citing border disputes and support for Shia groups inside Iraq.
During the war, the US increased aid to Iraq to defeat Iran. According to analysts, the US wanted to punish Iran with Iraq. But it failed to resist the Iranians. In 2002, then US President George W. Bush referred to some countries as 'evil powers'. The countries are: Iraq, Iran and North Korea.
In the meantime, the United States paid special attention to Iran's nuclear program. Tehran fell under the sanctions one after another. However, Iran maintains that its nuclear program is completely peaceful. However, they agreed to limit the program in exchange for lifting the economic embargo. Due to this, in 2015, Tehran made an agreement with five world powers including the United States. Since then, Iran's economy has started to turn around.
But in 2018, the then US President Donald Trump unilaterally withdrew the United States from this agreement. He also imposed strict sanctions on Iran. The United States has declared the country's Revolutionary Guard as a terrorist force. Most recently, in 2020, the killing of Iran's top general, Qassem Soleimani, increased the tension between the two countries.
Unsettled nuclear deal
Despite repeated setbacks, Western countries held a meeting with Iran on the nuclear issue in Vienna, the capital of Austria, in August this year. The talks were mediated by the European Union as an attempt to restore the nuclear deal after US President Joe Biden came to power. Russia, China, France, Germany and the United Kingdom participated in it, but the United States joined indirectly. However, due to disagreements on various issues, the talks broke down again.
Russia-China-Iran alliance: West worried
According to political analysts, Iran is 'bleeding' under US sanctions. Tehran wants to join the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, a Central Asian security body, to overcome economic isolation. Iran was added as a new member at the organization's 21st summit last month. Through this, many people think that the hand of the counter-power against the United States in Central Asia has become stronger.
Analysts say that its allies, including the United States, are worried because Iran is joining hands with Russia and China. Biden has repeatedly warned that Russia, Iran and China will not be allowed to expand their influence in the Middle East. He also commented that it is not his choice to spin the stick of Iran in this region.
Iran is in turmoil over the recent death of a young woman named Mahsa Amini in police custody. And on this occasion, the United States imposed sanctions against some officials of the country's moral police as well as security agencies. In this way, many people think that the Biden administration wants to further corner Iran. Meanwhile, Iran claims that Washington is trying to create instability in the country by taking advantage of the ongoing protests.
A major threat to adversaries is Iran's ideology
According to many political analysts, the ongoing protests, Iran's involvement in the Russo-Ukraine war, and ties with Russia and China have increased the vigilance of Tehran by the United States and its allies. Due to all this, efforts are being made to corner and isolate Iran.
On the other hand, despite being far behind the United States in terms of military power, the biggest strength of Iran's army is Guerrilla Qaeda. At the same time, Tehran is more dangerous for the enemy because of the mentality of 'smiling martyrdom' to defeat the enemy. At the same time, self-sacrifice for country, religion and political beliefs is a major pillar of Iranian culture. For this reason, Iran is a big threat to the western countries including the United States.
Experts fear that the West will not hesitate to stop the war on any pretext to stop this powerful country in the Middle East or to continue the conflict in Iran like Syria and Afghanistan. However, many people think that the United States will not be able to fight against the Iran-China-Russia alliance.
